2020 was a stark reminder of just how unpredictable the world is. As events unfolded and policy makers responded it was necessary for banks and other economic agents to continuously update their outlook on how the economy would respond. Markets initially lurched downwards, stocks, commodities and interest rates but then started to look through the immediate impact of the crisis to a recovering economy benefiting from vaccines and the monetary and fiscal tools deployed by policy makers. Many would argue that the markets have been wildly optimistic about recovery, others would disagree. What is clear is that forecasting is much more difficult, and yet far more important, than we might like.
The aim of this course is to provide participants with an overview of approaches to forecasting ranging from the classical linearforecasting methods to non-linear approaches, predicting extreme events and the types of techniques used by traders. While the aim is to present a range of techniques, the course is also frank about their weaknesses and great emphasis is placed on making use of all available techniques together with incorporation of expert judgement.
During the presentation the trainer will develop models using a range of tools to demonstrate techniques. Participants will have opportunities to explore the models further.